Following a heartbreaking 54–45 defeat at Pittsburgh this past Saturday, Duke football's season of promise now finds itself at a precarious tipping point.
On a day when Coach David Cutcliffe’s potent offense rolled up historic numbers and gifted quarterback Daniel Jones all but vouchsafed his status as a future NFL first-rounder, the team managed to blow a late lead, giving up twelve points in the final 2:33 to give away a game that would have made them 6–2 and on pace for the sort of breakout season the program has long aspired to. Instead, they stand at 5–3, losers of two of their last three contests, and running the risk of the sort of mid-season slide into mediocrity that rendered 2017 a mixed bag.
Just when the Blue Devils appeared to have the game in hand, familiar issues with defense and special teams reared their ugly heads. In a high-scoring affair featuring many, many kickoffs, Duke's coverage was routinely terrible, allowing Pitt short fields, especially during the excruciating fourth-quarter collapse. An underprepared defense allowed a staggering 484 ground yards and seemed completely gassed by the time the Panthers drove eighty-two yards to score the winning touchdown with five seconds remaining.
It seems almost unfair to point out that a high-octane offense undermined by poor defense and atrocious special teams has frequently been the formula that has kept Coach Cutcliffe from winning more, as clear improvements in both of those phases of the game have been frequently evident this season. But it would likewise be disingenuous to not acknowledge that this was the dynamic that played out last weekend.
Football is evolving rapidly on both the college and pro level, as innovative offensive minds exploit schematic mismatches and rules advantages to rack up titanic points and yards. Within the coaching profession, no figure is respected more than Cutcliffe, whose once-cutting-edge concepts have been so widely imitated as to become fully mainstream. That he is the paterfamilias of the new offensive freedoms is beyond question. How far he can take Duke football with that pedigree remains an open question.
Over the course of his ten-year tenure, Cutcliffe has amassed a 64–70 record, with four of the past five seasons comprising winning records. They will require one win in their next four games to become bowl eligible, and we can assume that will happen for certain in a couple weeks against Mike V.'s emotionally stunted UNC team. With additional wins over tough but beatable ACC rivals Miami and Wake Forest, the Blue Devils could reach eight victories and stake out their most consequential campaign since 2013's giddy run to 10–4.
A move in the other direction would represent a poignant undermining of Cutcliffe's overarching vision of a storied tradition of Blue Devils football excellence. A second consecutive midseason swoon would be an indication that this is Duke football as we will have to love and accept it: kinetic and innovative on offense, thin and under-recruited on defense, and always one step removed from stature as a true national power. Suddenly, Saturday night’s game in Miami against the 5–3 Hurricanes feels less like a routine ACC conference game and more like a bellwether.
Defeating Miami will require overcoming a poor recent history against the Canes, who have beaten the Devils four straight times. They will walk into Hard Rock Stadium as seven-point underdogs and rocked back on their heels following last week. It all amounts to one of the toughest spots and most intriguing challenges of Coach Cutcliffe’s long career. Despite the formidable nature of these obstacles, I like Duke to prevail in a bounce-back game in which the Blue Devils’ offensive weapons shine and the defense proves just resourceful enough. The opposite outcome will prompt all of the wrong questions.
Next Up: Duke (5-3) at Miami (5-3)
Where To See It: Saturday, 7 PM airing on ESPN2
Odds: Miami -7
Prediction: Duke 35–Miami 27
