Public opinion on the Panthers’ 2018 prospects is widely split, and why wouldn't it be? The NFL is notoriously difficult to predict year to year, and the Panthers have undergone an off-season of transition. Last year's 11-5 team, which finished second in the NFC South and lost a close contest to the Saints in the wildcard, returns longtime head coach Ron Rivera and star quarterback Cam Newton, but will feature new coordinators on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, the full-time return of GM Marty Hurney, and a new owner in David Tepper.
Many see the Panthers as nothing better than the third best team in their own division, let alone a Super Bowl contender in the stacked NFC. My own view of their chances is somewhat rosier, but we'll get to that later. In the meantime, let's break down the good, the bad, and the question marks heading into this Sunday’s home opener against the goddamn Cowboys.
The Good
Cam Newton is so consistently productive it's easy to take him for granted. The 2015 league MVP had another terrific season last year, accounting for four thousand (!) yards of total offense through the air and on the ground, with twenty-two passing touchdowns and an additional six with his legs. As his critics are inclined to point out, Newton is unlikely to ever achieve Montana-like accuracy as a passer, but his near 60 percent completion rate figures to improve with the implementation of Norv Turner's new attack and the addition of D.J. Moore and Ian Thomas as weapons. Newton is as smart and tough as quarterbacks come, and as he enters his year-thirty season, Panthers fans should savor what they have in a legitimately elite signal caller.
Elsewhere on offense, preseason buzz centered around second-year back Christian McCaffrey, the highly touted prospect from Stanford whose rookie season was a mixed bag of spectacular plays and disappearing acts. During the Panthers' exhibition slate, McCaffrey frequently looked like the fastest player on the field, and the potential for a thrilling breakout is real. As a dual-option run/pass threat, it is possible to imagine him next in a long line of great RBs who have thrived in Turner's system, from Emmitt Smith to Stephen Davis to LaDainian Tomlinson.
On defense, returning stars Luke Kuechly, Julius Peppers, and Mario Addison head up a front seven that can stand toe to toe with the best the league has to offer. Add into the mix free agent Dontari Poe, and you have the makings of a unit capable of making life difficult for any opponent. If, that is, the secondary can hold up.
Which brings us to …
The Bad
The Panthers' secondary could generously be described as a work in progress. The team drafted talented rookies Donte Jackson and Rashaan Gaulden and plans to have both on the field for long stretches. Each of them has flashed game-changing talent as pass defenders, but the learning curve in the NFL is lengthy, and two games a year against Matt Ryan and Drew Brees is no easy finishing school. As good as the front seven may prove, the Panthers' cornerbacks and safeties are a vulnerable hodgepodge of the too green and too long in the tooth.
Elsewhere, the O-line is a mess, largely through no fault of their own. The Cats will enter Sunday's contest with three projected starters sidelined by injuries, headed by left tackle mainstay Matt Kalil who elected for arthroscopic knee surgery just a few weeks from the beginning of the season. The absence of additional starters Daryl Williams (torn MCL) and Amini Silatulo (torn meniscus) means they will face the goddamn Cowboys’ ferocious pass rush heavily short-handed. Injury luck has been an issue at this position, as has a lack of commitment to prioritizing Cam's first line of protection. If that trend persists, the Panthers will struggle to stay at .500.
The Prognosis
Those who dismiss Carolina's chances of making a deep postseason run are not being unreasonable. Outside of their own difficult division, a daunting group of NFC challengers awaits, including the defending champion Eagles, the talent-loaded Vikings and Rams, and the Packers, with a healthy, returning Aaron Rodgers. The Panthers will need to hit the ground running to keep up with that crowd, and winnable games like Sunday’s against the goddamn Cowboys will be vital to their chances.
I, being the optimistic sort, am one who believes the pieces will come together and this team will match or even improve upon last season’s 11–5 record. The biggest reason is the man behind center, who feels primed to bust out with another MVP-caliber season of the sort he put together during the team’s 15–1 Super Bowl run in 2015. The defense will experience some growing pains under new coordinator Eric Washington, but the veteran stars will make enough plays to keep them in games. Every team is vulnerable to a rash of season-wrecking injuries, but failing that, this is a dangerous and in many ways overlooked squad that could make plenty of noise starting Sunday.
Season Prediction: 11–5
Prediction This Week: Panthers 28, goddamn Cowboys 20
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