In 2016, Donald Trump won North Carolina by 3.6 points. Four years before that, Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by about 2 points. Four years before that, Obama defeated John McCain by roughly 14,000 votes. We have a moderate Democratic governor who knocked off a GOP incumbent by about 10,000 votes, a radical GOP legislature (and congressional delegation) entrenched through gerrymandering, and a Dem-tilted state Supreme Court.
We are, in other words, a swing state.
And, on paper, we’re a swing state in which Democrats could do well this year. Since Trump’s election, we’ve seen the eradication of the GOP in the metros, a GOP election-fraud scandal that led to a do-over congressional race, and the state GOP chairman plead guilty to a bribery charge.
In addition, the November ballot will feature the least popular U.S. senator in the country (hi, Thom!) and, assuming Dan Forest wins the March 3 primary, a Republican gubernatorial candidate who thinks The Handmaid’s Tale is a policy manual.
But Democrats aren’t as confident as all that might suggest. The election will be close, and whatever happens will likely depend on Trump—and how he affects turnout.
With registration for the primary set to close on Friday—you can same-day register throughout the early-voting period, which starts on February 13—we wanted to see how the composition of the state’s voters has changed since November 2016.
One interesting nugget, according to the State Board of Elections: North Carolina has added more than 300,000 people since 2016. But as of January 25, it has about 4,000 fewer registered voters.
Contact editor in chief Jeffrey C. Billman at [email protected].
Support independent local journalism. Join the INDY Press Club to help us keep fearless watchdog reporting and essential arts and culture coverage viable in the Triangle.
Election statistics are a 4-year cycle. February of the prez year is the low point, November of the prez year the high point. Registered NC voters 1/30/2016 6,448,394 and 2/1/2020 6,921,884 — a 463,000 increase comparing their same point in the cycle.