We’ve covered the hell out of Raleigh politics this year.
We’ve covered campaigns. We’ve covered campaign contributions. We’ve gone deep with the major mayoral candidates—and just spent six thousand words profiling one of them. We’ve reported on big fights over affordable housing and density and skirmishes over the RDU quarry. We’ve broken news about dumb screw-ups and poor decisions and councilmanic bullying. We’ve gotten yelled at on social media and yelled back in print.
And, a few weeks ago, we released our endorsements.
Today, you vote. Actually, you’ve been voting for the last few weeks. But today we learn who wins, who loses, and who goes to a runoff next month.
Before this merciful curtain closes, let’s do one last round of predictions for tonight’s results. As I’ve done in the past, these are based on an admixture of our reporting, analysis of campaign finance reports, conversations with local politicos, and instinct. For the record, I’ve been privy to descriptions of one campaign’s private polling, though not the polling itself; it was a few weeks ago, and there were a lot of undecideds.
I want to hear your predictions, too. Send me an email at email@example.com or leave them in the comments.
As a note: No matter where your favorite candidate stands—in my ratings or in reality—go vote. This is an extraordinarily important election for Raleigh’s future, and whether you think the INDY has read Raleigh’s political scene correctly or is full of shit, don’t sit on the sidelines.
Ready? Let’s do it.
Charles Francis: 34
Mary-Ann Baldwin: 32
Caroline Sullivan: 25
Zainab Baloch: 7
George Knott: 1
Justin Sutton: 1
Francis and Baldwin go to a runoff. This result would portend terribly for Francis.
(In order of finish, no percentages.)
Carlie Allison Spencer
Stewart wins outright. Stephenson does not get more than 25 percent, which allows Melton to request a runoff.
Patrick Buffkin 51
Sam Hershey 46
Joshua Bradley 3
A close race, with Buffkin barely winning a majority.
David Cox 56
Brian Fitzsimmons 44
Cox wins a little more easily than expected, perhaps owing to the Triangle Government Association’s ad backfire.
Corey Branch 62
Shelia Alamin Khashoggi 22
Wanda Hunter 12
Ricky Scott 4
Branch is easily re-elected.
Kay Crowder 41
Saige Martin 35
Brittany Bryan 20
April Parker 4
Crowder is forced into a runoff, where she’ll be an underdog.
David Knight 55
Stef Mendell 45
David Knight defeats Mendell.
If I’m right about all of this—I’m probably not—the council that takes office in December will probably be: Baldwin, Stewart, Melton, Buffkin, Cox, Branch, Martin, Knight. Only one of the four NIMBYs will remain.
For fun, let’s do Durham, too. (Again, by order of finish, no percentages; the top six move on to November).
… [small gap] …
… [somewhat larger gap] …
… [small gap] …
… [large gap] …
[…you can count their votes on your fingers and toes] …
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