“It’s tough to make predictions,” the 20th-century sage Yogi Berra once said, “especially about the future.”
Yet when facing a new global pandemic for which there is no established treatment or vaccine and about which we know very little, predictions—or more precisely, epidemiological and economic models—are all we’ve got. Of necessity, they’ve become the mother’s milk of public policy, informing our choices about when the economy should close and under what circumstances it’s safe to reopen, as well as the tradeoffs between public health and financial ruin.
North Carolina’s decision to begin reopening last week was rooted in models showing that the proverbial curve was flattening—meaning, in other words, that the state’s hospitals could handle a surge in new cases if one arose. While the number of diagnoses was rising, that was mostly due to more testing, which was good. And while the state’s COVID-19 deaths approached 550 on Sunday afternoon, the number dying per day appeared to have mostly leveled off.
These models have also framed the White House’s decisions. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s overly optimistic model—since revised—gave the Trump administration false confidence that the worst would be over soon. Economic models forecasting prolonged hardship in an election year are now leading officials to pretend the crisis is over and push the country to reopen, even as almost 2,000 people a day are dying.
There are several models trying to predict our coronavirus future, each making assumptions about the effects of variables such as various social distancing rules or the weather. Some are relatively optimistic; others are downright frightening. It’s possible none of them will be right. But as North Carolina begins returning to normal, we wanted to show you what five of the best-regarded epidemiological models say is in store for us over the next two weeks—as well as one that models both economic and public health effects, which forecasts what would happen if we throw caution to the wind and reopen sooner than later.
*All data as of Sunday, May 10. The models don’t all have the same reference dates or use the same data points. Where possible, May 29 was selected as a common endpoint.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
May 29, North Carolina
889 deaths (range: 720–1,198)
13 deaths per day (4–31)
May 29, U.S.
108,216 deaths (96,586–130,420)
1.078 deaths per day (444–2,405)
August 4 (furthest prediction)
1,190 deaths (764–2,142), North Carolina
137,184 deaths (102,783–223,489), U.S.
University of Texas
May 29, North Carolina
1,069 deaths (792–1,610)
21 deaths per day (4–78)
May 29, U.S.
115,201 deaths (102,432–140,389)
1,115 deaths per day (806–6,112)
May 29, Durham-Chapel Hill MSA
133 deaths (88–815)
0 deaths per day (0–58)
May 29, Raleigh-Cary MSA
101 deaths (76–168)
1 death per day (0–8)
Northeastern University
May 29, North Carolina
30 deaths per day (10–75)
May 29, U.S.
22,895 deaths per day, no mitigation (21,562–24,834)
778 deaths per day, stay-at-home policy (354–2,458)
May 31, U.S.
1,782,880 deaths, no mitigation (1,779,638–1,786,726)
94,857 deaths, stay-at-home policy (77,987–128,863)
Los Alamos National Laboratory
May 27, North Carolina
859 deaths (635–1,385)
May 27, U.S.
100,098 deaths (85,546–122,710)
June 17 (further projection)
1,078 deaths (682–2,606), North Carolina
114,332 deaths (89,203–174,930), U.S.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
May 29, North Carolina
1,085 deaths
25 deaths per day
May 29, U.S.
105,958 deaths
1,287 deaths per day
June 15 (furthest projection)
1,478 deaths, North Carolina
124,403 deaths, U.S.
Penn Wharton Budget Model
May 29, North Carolina, social distancing in place
625 deaths
8 deaths per day
–12.1% annualized GDP
87,372 jobs lost in previous 7 days
May 29, North Carolina, social distancing relaxed
721 deaths
16 deaths per day
–11.7% annualized GDP
63,042 jobs lost in previous 7 days
May 29, North Carolina, social distancing removed
1,144 deaths
69 deaths per day
–11.3% annualized GDP
11,276 jobs lost in previous 7 days
May 29, U.S., social distancing in place
92,821 deaths
946 deaths per day
–12.4% annualized GDP
2,243,011 jobs lost in previous 7 days
May 29, U.S., social distancing relaxed
102,693 deaths
1641 deaths per day
–12.1% annualized GDP
1,509,551 jobs lost in previous 7 days
May 29, U.S., social distancing removed
152,899 deaths
6,776 deaths per day
–11.6% annualized GDP
54,361 jobs lost in previous 7 days
June 29 (furthest projection)
830 deaths / 61,635 weekly jobs LOST, social distancing in place, North Carolina
1,438 deaths / 17,290 weekly jobs LOST, social distancing relaxed, North Carolina
9,773 deaths / 85,689 weekly jobs GAINED, social distancing removed, North Carolina
115,937 deaths / 925,394 weekly jobs LOST, social distancing in place, U.S.
159,620 deaths / 411,436 weekly jobs GAINED, social distancing relaxed, U.S.
894,932 deaths / 3,504,462 weekly jobs GAINED, social distancing removed, U.S.
Contact editor in chief Jeffrey C. Billman at jbillman@indyweek.com.
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