Democrats trounced Republicans in Wake County on Tuesday, flipping two state House seats by wide margins and helping to wrest control of the chamber from the GOP for the first time in 15 years.
In southern Wake, Democratic newcomer Winn Decker beat three-term Republican incumbent Rep. Erin Paré. In northern Wake, Democrat Evonne Hopkins won her rematch against freshman Republican Rep. Mike Schietzelt. Decker and Hopkins both won by about 10 points, far outperforming predictions that their races would be some of the closest in the state.
Political scientist David McLennan, who recently retired from Meredith College, chalked their victories up to a combination of changing voter demographics in suburban Wake County and a forceful rebuke of Republican politics. Both of the districts slightly favored Republicans when the incumbents won two years ago, but this year, they were rated true toss-ups by the Civitas Partisan Index.
“More and more people that favor Democratic politics are living in those areas,” McLennan told the INDY on Wednesday. “So I think there’s a structural change happening there that’s going to be more permanent. And, the large margins clearly were the repudiation of Trump and state Republicans.”
Decker, an education policy consultant, said in a statement that his campaign “focused on making sure families in Southern Wake County can afford to live here, our public schools have the resources they need, and our communities have the infrastructure and opportunities to thrive.”
“An election is only the beginning,” he added. “District 37 deserves a representative who listens, works across differences, and never loses sight of the people and communities we are here to serve.”
Hopkins, a family law attorney, thanked her voters, campaign team, and volunteers in a statement.
“I have spent my career helping people through some of the most difficult moments of their lives,” she said. “I know how much families need stability, safety and someone willing to stand up for them.”
Wake County Democratic Party chair Wesley Knott credited Decker and Hopkins’ wins to “overwhelming” turnout among Democrats and unaffiliated voters. He’s still crunching the final numbers, but he estimated a turnout percentage in the high 60s among registered Democrats, which would be unprecedented for a midterm year. Wake County’s overall turnout was 60%.
“This has been a long time coming,” Knott said. “We’ve been canvassing and talking to voters and phone banking and organizing in our competitive districts for several years now.”
He said the county party worked hard to remind voters that Districts 35 and 37 were some of the most competitive and how much their vote mattered.
“That kind of voter education over time, even for people who aren’t super politically engaged … I think it gets buy-in,” he said.
With Paré and Schietzelt unseated, Wake’s legislative delegation will be composed entirely of Democrats. Had Republicans retained control of the state House, that might have boxed Wake County out of important discussions and funding opportunities. But as it stands, Decker and Hopkins will be sworn in as part of a new Democratic majority.
“For years, during the Republican majorities in both chambers, the metropolitan areas got hurt a little bit because of their large Democratic delegations,” McLennan said.
The new balance of power will “give counties like Wake … more voice in terms of budget issues and any other kind of legislation,” he said. “They’ll still have to work with the Republicans to some degree to get things through the Senate. They’ll need one or two senators to come over with them. But I don’t think that’s impossible.”
(Democrats broke Republicans’ Senate supermajority but fell just short of capturing the majority there.)
The new House majority’s first priorities, according to presumptive Speaker Robert Reives, will be education funding and economic relief—two issues Decker and Hopkins campaigned heavily on.
In her statement, Hopkins promised to fight for lower costs, strengthen public schools, and “protect our freedom to quality, affordable healthcare.” She also said she would work to hold Duke Energy accountable on behalf of families struggling with their energy bills.
Knott said elected Democrats need to deliver on their campaign promises if they want to hold on to their newfound power.
“[Will] it look different with two years of a Democratic majority in the House than it did with a Republican supermajority? If it doesn’t, I think it’s going to be really difficult to cling on to the progress that we’ve made,” Knott said. “But if we are insistent that we’re going to use the power in our hands to make people’s lives better, I think that they’re going to reward us with more power.”
The House District 37 race in particular represents a major loss for state Republicans, who spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads for Paré, one of their rising stars. McLennan said she was a quality candidate, and her resounding loss just goes to show how decisively southern Wake has turned against Republicans.
“This is a case where even a relatively good candidate on the Republican side … still didn’t produce the results they wanted,” he said.
During the final few months of her campaign, Paré received tens of thousands of dollars in donations from corporate political action committees, including Duke Energy, Dominion Energy, UnitedHealth Group, Amgen, and Novartis, as well as interest groups like the NC Home Builders Association, NC REALTORS, and the Carolinas chapter of the Associated General Contractors of America.
McLennan says he’ll be watching where those groups take their money next since their preferred investment didn’t pay off.
“You wonder, will they shift their investments to Decker in the future, or are they just going to get out of politics? I don’t know,” he said. That’ll be interesting to look at in a couple of years.”
Paré conceded to Decker in a social media post Tuesday night.
“The results of this election are in and I wish Winn Decker the best,” she wrote. But she couldn’t resist lashing out at him one last time about his status as a renter, not a homeowner, a criticism she raised frequently during the campaign to suggest he wasn’t sufficiently rooted in southern Wake: “Now is a great time for him to become a permanent resident in House District 37.”
Paré wrote that she’s proud of her accomplishments from the past six years and is “looking ahead to future opportunities to serve our state, (stay tuned).”
McLennan said based on Tuesday’s results, Republicans will have a hard time winning in Wake County from now on.
“Seats are going to be really difficult to come by in Wake County. So where does someone like Paré go?” he asked. “Does she keep running in her district? Does she look for something different? Does she run statewide? It’s going to be a tough environment to run in.”
McLennan noted that Democrats also dominated in local races, like school board and county commission, that can be a stepping-stone to higher office.
“So where does a young—meaning young to politics—Republican go in Wake County?” he said. “It’s a real challenge for them.”
Jane Porter contributed reporting.
